OB31 & South Flank Uncertainty Analysis


AGE were commissioned to calibrate an existing groundwater model to predict groundwater impacts associated with the OB31 project. AGE calibrated the model using singular value decomposition and shuffled-complex evolution techniques to derive the best possible calibration statistics. A non-linear uncertainty analysis was undertaken using GLUE, DREAM, and null-space Monte Carlo methods.

South Flank

AGE were commissioned to develop a simplified ‘child’ model from a complex regional ‘parent’ model to assess potential groundwater impacts associated with the South Flank Project. AGE calibrated the model using PEST, and performed a linear predictive analysis to determine which parameters and observations were reducing the uncertainty of groundwater drawdown and pit dewatering rates. A non-linear GLUE uncertainty analysis was performed to assess the complex parameter interactions expected at upper and lower values for the aquifer and recharge parameters.